Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jul 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 27-Jul 29 2024 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 00-03UT 3.67 2.67 3.00 03-06UT 4.00 2.33 2.67 06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.00 09-12UT 3.33 2.00 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 1.67 2.67 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.00 2.00 2.67 21-00UT 2.33 2.33 3.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 27 Jul due to CH HSS and CME influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms over 27-29 Jul. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jul 22 2024 0404 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater, over 27-29 Jul.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
Mauna Loa Solar Image |
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). |
Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
Solar X-ray Flux This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. |
Satellite Environment Plot The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. |
Solar Cycle
Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. |
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression. |
Ap Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.