Tropical Sea Temperatures
Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131720
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist in association with a
trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. Strong
upper-level winds are making the current environment unfavorable for
development. However, the system is expected to move into a more
favorable environment for some gradual development by the middle to
later portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 13 Sep 2026 19:32:24 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131722
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norbert, located well west of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja Peninsula have become better organized and more persistent
today. If these development trends continue, a tropical depression
or storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system
moves generally westward. For more information on this disturbance,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Brown
Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP142026)
...NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Sep 13 the center of Norbert was located near 18.2, -132.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026 500 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026 ...NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 132.7W ABOUT 1510 MI...2425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1465 MI...2360 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 132.7 West. Norbert is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible for the rest of the day, followed by a gradual weakening trend after that. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Katz/Brown
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 131434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 132.7W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 132.7W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 132.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.6N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.4N 139.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.7N 142.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.8N 145.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 132.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/BROWN
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026 500 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026 Norbert’s overnight burst of convection has faded since the previous advisory, however proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that a new convective burst appears to be developing. Water vapor imagery shows that there is still plenty of dry air surrounding the system. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix came in with an intensity of 45 kt, and the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of 37-43 kt. Therefore the initial intensity remains at 45 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be 285/10 kt. The storm is expected to move west-northwestward to westward as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance continue to show good agreement on this general heading of the cyclone. The current NHC track forecast has been nudged a little right of the previous forecast track and remains close to the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind (GDMI) ensemble mean. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the short term as Norbert remains in a marginal environment. The cyclone is contending with mid-level dry air intrusions and light west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. After 12 h, the wind shear is expected to increase, which should result in a generally weakening trend. Around 60 h, the simulated GFS and ECMWF satellite imagery shows that the cyclone should lose organized deep convection and it is therefore expected to become a post-tropical remnant low and then dissipated around 72 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in line with the latest guidance including the HCCA and GDMI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 18.2N 132.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.6N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.4N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 19.7N 142.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 19.8N 145.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Brown
Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 131435
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 135W 34 8 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16)
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BROWN
Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2026 15:23:12 GMT