Tropical Sea Temperatures
Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 101736
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located about
100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Only a small increase in
the organization could lead to the formation of a tropical
depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo Verde
Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across
the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.
Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear very conducive for later
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic. Some gradual development is possible during the middle
part of this week while the system moves northward over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 10 Aug 2025 21:00:25 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101735
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several
hundred miles northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located in the Eastern Pacific basin several hundred
miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Ivo (EP4/EP092025)
...IVO RESILIENTLY MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER COOL WATER... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 the center of Ivo was located near 22.1, -117.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Ivo Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 826 WTPZ34 KNHC 102031 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...IVO RESILIENTLY MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER COOL WATER... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 117.2W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 117.2 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward and then westward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a remnant low on Monday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 465 WTPZ24 KNHC 102031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 117.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 117.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 125.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 613 WTPZ44 KNHC 102032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Even over waters of 23-24 degrees Celsius, Ivo is managing to maintain a persistent area of deep convection. A recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of 30 kt. Accounting for the instrument's sampling limitations, and combined with satellite estimates still running around 35 kt, it is estimated that Ivo is hanging on to tropical storm status. Sea surface temperatures drop by another 2-3 degrees along Ivo's forecast track, so weakening is expected to resume tonight, and simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF show that deep convection could finally be gone by Monday morning. Degeneration into a remnant low is forecast by 24 hours, followed by dissipation into a trough in 60 hours. Ivo is moving west-northwestward (285 deg) at 10 kt. This motion should continue for the next 12 hours, followed by a slight bend to the west in 24 hours as Ivo stays situated to the south of the low- to mid-level ridge. The track models are tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is mainly an update of the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 125.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 686
FOPZ14 KNHC 102031
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
2100 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Ivo Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 20:33:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 20:33:17 GMT