Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

547 
ABNT20 KNHC 130512
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:10:19 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130518
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located in the eastern Pacific basin off 
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or 
early next week near the coast of Central America.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this 
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central 
America and southern Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E are issued 
under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E are issued 
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E (EP4/EP042025)

...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Four-E was located near 12.2, -100.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 2a

Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 727 
WTPZ34 KNHC 130531
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
1200 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
 
...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 100.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.2 North, longitude 100.7 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward
the west-northwest is forecast by Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The
system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and 
continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Saturday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will
affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 036 
WTPZ24 KNHC 130233
TCMEP4
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042025
0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 100.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 130235
TCDEP4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
 
Satellite images show the disturbance is still broad with little 
improvement in organization this evening. There is minimal 
convective banding, and most of the thunderstorm activity is 
displaced well away from the cloud system center. The broad low 
remains a 30-kt disturbance for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 6 kt, though 
it is uncertain due to the lack of a well-defined center. The 
near-term motion could be erratic and slightly more northward 
overnight while the disturbance organizes and forms a center. But, 
the track guidance agrees that as the system organizes and deepens, 
it will resume a northwestward motion and move parallel to the coast 
of southwestern Mexico. Little change is shown in the updated NHC 
forecast, which remains near the simple and corrected consensus 
aids. However, larger changes could be required in future issuances 
depending on where and when a center eventually forms. 
 
The broad structure does not suggest strengthening will occur 
quickly in the near term. Once the system consolidates, the warm sea 
surface temperatures and moist environment appear generally 
favorable for intensification. Although the regional models show the 
system reaching hurricane status, moderate (15-20 kt) easterly shear 
shown by the global models for the next several days could make it 
difficult for that much strengthening to occur. For now, the NHC 
intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a strong tropical 
storm, in line with the simple intensity consensus. Cooler waters 
and drier mid-level air will lead to weakening during the latter 
half of the forecast period, and the system is forecast to dissipate 
by day 5. 

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring 
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, 
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when 
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical 
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 11.9N 100.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 976 
FOPZ14 KNHC 130233
PWSEP4
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E                                   
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042025               
0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 105W       34  X   2( 2)  29(31)  20(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 100W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   9(22)   X(22)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 05:34:33 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 03:21:36 GMT